FanPost

PJP48 NBA Draft 2022 class evaluation

Last year, I spent 3 solid months making an NBA college scouting metric

I posted the results here for anyone who was interested, and am doing so again.

PJP48 is the Pro-Jected Points per 48 minutes the player will cause (+/- aggregate of both positive and negative contributions) on an AVERAGE NBA team.

I take all the player's per 36 college/wherever stats of their last season leading up to the draft.

These stats are normalised via filters for SOS, pace, team points, player age and experience and finally extrapolated to the very different NBA game.

Filters for all the physical traits' (height, weight, length) and combine physical testing (agility, speed, jumping, bench etc) are also added where available.

In all, there are 38 data points calculated. I have 786 players entered (including 103 from this year) going back to 1988, but mostly from the last 7 years to cover guys still in the league.

The results basically predict player efficiency and readiness. Prospects obviously develop differently. Also, the younger they are, the more variance possible (risk/reward). While it is adjusted significantly for age, the metric mostly measures where the player is right now, which is a floor not a ceiling. It also can't predict injuries, draft slot/circumstance, depth chart etc.

The main criticism people have of the metric is that it favours centers and pass-first PGs. This is incorrect, those positions provide the most scoreboard impact because they actually do things rebound, block, dunk (highly efficient scoring) and create assists.

However, this year I made a new metric perverting the pure maths with NBA traits-based metric which mimics a big board more. Although, it seems to be the worst year to do it, as most of the best players are all bigs. The players are ordered by the DRAFT metric, but the PJP48 scores are still there too.

I didn't watch any players at all this year until I finished this a few days ago, this is all maths. Foreign players all have an asterisk as their stats are the most different due to the vastly different nature of their game. I'm still working on a European to NBA converter.

# P First PJP Surname Drft

1 C Chet 30.8 Holmgren 36.7

2 C Mark 20.4 Williams 20.0

3 PG Ziga 16.1 Samar* 18.9

4 PF Keegan 15.9 Murray 18.7

5 C Walker 19.4 Kessler 18.4

6 SF David 15.9 Roddy 18.0

7 PG Vasilije 14.2 Mcic* 17.9

8 SF Jabari 15.2 Smith 17.4

9 PF Tari 14.7 Eason 17.2

10 C Oscar 18.9 Tshiebwe 16.9

11 C Zach 19.0 Edey 16.6

12 PF Jaylin 16.1 Williams 16.6

13 CG Dalen 15.0 Terry 16.5

14 PF Trevion 16.4 Williams 16.3

15 SF Vince 13.4 Williams 16.2

16 CG J.D. 14.9 Davison 16.2

17 SG Gabriele 13.0 Procida* 15.9

18 PF Paolo 14.2 Banchero 15.5

19 C Armando 16.7 Bacot 15.5

20 23 Jalen 12.7 Williams 15.3

21 PG Andrew 12.2 Nembhard 15.2

22 SF A.J. 12.7 Griffin 15.1

23 SF Jake 12.5 Laravia 14.7

24 C Christian 14.9 Koloko 14.3

25 C Jalen 17.2 Duren 14.2

27 34 Jabari 12.5 Walker 14.1

28 PF Michael 13.9 Foster 13.8

29 PF E.J. 12.1 Liddell 13.7

30 F Justin 12.2 Lewis 13.6

31 PF Azuolas 13.3 Tubelis 13.5

32 PG Kennedy 13.7 Chandler 13.5

33 34 Kendall 12.3 Brown 13.4

34 PF Josh 13.0 Minott 13.3

35 SG Christian 11.8 Braun 13.3

36 SF Dyson 17.2 Daniels 13.2