FanPost

2010 NBA re-draft using ONLY PCP40

I entered all the players final season stats - aside from six or seven Euros that I couldn't find worthwhile stats for - from the real 2010 NBA draft, plus two undrafted (61) steals, into the PCP40 metric calculator

I made two sets of columns: The first is the actual draft without the unreliable Euros. With the draft slot, colour-banded for how high the player was selected.

The second is simply my PCP40 rankings with no eye scouting whatsoever, just stats entered into a metric to produce a score. An average of their points impact (per 40 minutes of court time) on the scoreboard for THEIR team in their final year of college.

That’s the raw = PCP40. Which is then age and experience adjusted and pace adjusted to project for the NBA= PCP40aa

Again, with the draft slot colour-banded for how high the player was actually selected.

As you can see in the metric version the cream naturally rises to the top and the talent is bunched a lot better in the first round. Thus most of the busts are suppressed. Undrafted Jeremy Lin (5) and Ish Smith (32) both get their just dues.

You need to beware of recency bias when looking at these results. Players who come good three, four or five years into their career were sub-standard players for significant time. Especially the younger ones without a long college career behind them. The metric is age adjusted but they still have a higher variance. Thus the rush to gamble on them I suppose.

A certain percentage of players do grow of course - particularly one-and-dones which both Avery Bradley and Eric Bledsoe - very similar stat profiles. Bledsoe should probably be bumped for going to Kentucky. Both could shoot a bit but neither was/is a great passer or got to the free throw line.

----------REAL DRAFT -------------------------PCP40 DECIDED DRAFT------

PCP First D Sur First D Sur PCP M
27.2 PG John 1 Wall C DeMarcus 5 Cousins 29.7 1
27.9 CG Evan 2 Turner CG Evan 2 Turner 27.9 2
22.3 PF Derrick 3 Favors PG John 1 Wall 27.2 3
19.5 SF Wesley 4 Johnson PF Greg 7 Monroe 25.5 4
29.7 C DeMarcus 5 Cousins PG Jeremy 61 Lin 24.8 5
19.2 PF Ekpe 6 Udoh C Cole 11 Aldrich 23.1 6
25.5 PF Greg 7 Monroe PG Greivis 28 Vásquez 23.0 7
21.9 SF Al-Farouq 8 Aminu SF Paul 10 George 22.7 8
20.3 SF Gordon 9 Hayward PF Ed 13 Davis 22.5 9
22.7 SF Paul 10 George PF Derrick 3 Favors 22.3 10
23.1 C Cole 11 Aldrich PG Darington 37 Hobson 22.3 11
18.3 SF Xavier 12 Henry SF Al-Farouq 8 Aminu 21.9 12
22.5 PF Ed 13 Davis PF Trevor 23 Booker 21.4 13
17.8 PF Patrick 14 Patterson C Jarvis 41 Varnado 21.2 14
20.9 PF Larry 15 Sanders PF Damion 24 James 21.0 15
20.4 PF Luke 16 Babbitt SF Landry 39 Fields 20.9 16
14.9 PG Eric 18 Bledsoe PF Larry 15 Sanders 20.9 17
14.4 PG Avery 19 Bradley C Hassan 33 Whiteside 20.6 18
19.5 PF James 20 Anderson PF Luke 16 Babbitt 20.4 19
17.4 PF Craig 21 Brackins SF Gordon 9 Hayward 20.3 20
20.0 PF Elliot 22 Williams PF Elliot 22 Williams 20.0 21
21.4 PF Trevor 23 Booker PF James 20 Anderson 19.5 22
21.0 PF Damion 24 James SF Wesley 4 Johnson 19.5 23
19.4 SG Dominique 25 Jones C Dwayne 60 Collins 19.5 24
18.4 PF Quincy 26 Pondexter SG Dominique 25 Jones 19.4 25
17.3 PF Jordan 27 Crawford PG Andy 38 Rautins 19.4 26
23.0 PG Greivis 28 Vásquez PF Tiny 47 Gallon 19.3 27
16.6 C Daniel 29 Orton PG Armon 34 Johnson 19.3 28
16.4 PF Lazar 30 Hayward PF Ekpe 6 Udoh 19.2 29
18.6 PF Dexter 32 Pittman PF Devin 43 Ebanks 18.6 30
20.6 C Hassan 33 Whiteside PF Dexter 32 Pittman 18.6 31
19.3 PG Armon 34 Johnson PG Ish 61 Smith 18.6 32
14.5 PG Terrico 36 White PF Quincy 26 Pondexter 18.4 33
22.3 PG Darington 37 Hobson SF Xavier 12 Henry 18.3 34
19.4 PG Andy 38 Rautins PF Jerome 44 Jordan 18.1 35
20.9 SF Landry 39 Fields PF Willie 54 Warren 18.0 36
17.9 SF Lance 40 Stephenson SF Jeremy 55 Evans 18.0 37
21.2 C Jarvis 41 Varnado SF Lance 40 Stephenson 17.9 38
17.9 PF Da'Sean 42 Butler PF Da'Sean 42 Butler 17.9 39
18.6 PF Devin 43 Ebanks PF Patrick 14 Patterson 17.8 40
18.1 PF Jerome 44 Jordan PF Luke 52 Harangody 17.8 41
17.5 C Gani 46 Lawal C Gani 46 Lawal 17.5 42
19.3 PF Tiny 47 Gallon PF Derrick 58 Caracter 17.5 43
15.0 PF Solomon 50 Alabi PF Craig 21 Brackins 17.4 44
15.9 PF Magnum 51 Rolle PF Jordan 27 Crawford 17.3 45
17.8 PF Luke 52 Harangody C Daniel 29 Orton 16.6 46
18.0 PF Willie 54 Warren PF Lazar 30 Hayward 16.4 47
18.0 SF Jeremy 55 Evans PF Hamady 56 N'Diaye 16.2 48
16.2 PF Hamady 56 N'Diaye PF Magnum 51 Rolle 15.9 49
11.7 PF Ryan 57 Reid PF Solomon 50 Alabi 15.0 50
17.5 PF Derrick 58 Caracter PF Eric 18 Bledsoe 14.9 51
14.3 PF Stanley 59 Robinson PG Terrico 36 White 14.5 52
19.5 C Dwayne 60 Collins PG Avery 19 Bradley 14.4 53
18.6 PG Ish 61 Smith PF Stanley 59 Robinson 14.3 54
24.8 PG Jeremy 61 Lin PF Ryan 57 Reid 11.7 55