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NBA Preview: With no Kyle Lowry, Pelicans odds of beating Raptors substantially higher

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New Orleans chances to secure an upset victory are better than you probably think.

NBA: New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

The New Orleans Pelicans will host the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday evening, but before you roll your eyes and figure an automatic loss, realize there exists hope for the unexpected victory.

Kyle Lowry, the Raptors best player, is sidelined with a wrist injury that required surgery last week. In case it slipped your mind, Lowry was responsible for the Raptors coming back from a 14-point deficit to beat the Pelicans in overtime in the team’s first matchup of the season.

Yes, DeMar DeRozan, who missed that game, will suit up, but he’s not the same all-around weapon as one of the Eastern Conference’s best point guards. According to NBAwowy, Toronto is 10.4 points better per 100 possessions against all opponents with Lowry on/DeRozan off on the season versus -4.7 points with DeRozan on/Lowry off. That’s an astounding difference!

Further, there is a decent chance DeMarre Carroll will not be able to play after sustaining an ankle injury on Sunday against the Milwaukee Bucks. Although he’s not nearly as effective as he was in Atlanta, Carroll is an important cog in Toronto’s plan of attack.

Since losing Lowry to injury, the Raptors have enjoyed just one win in three tries on the road — a 1-point win in New York against the Knicks that required every single one of DeRozan’s 37 points.

Speaking of the shooting guard’s exploits, the Raptors are 4-0 on the season when he’s topped the 30-point barrier without Lowry in the lineup. They’re 0-2 when he’s fallen short of that scoring mark.

Why am I confident the Pelicans can keep DeRozan under wraps? For one, New Orleans defense has been really good since the All-Star break. If you exclude the laugher against the Rockets in DeMarcus Cousins very first game, New Orleans has posted a 98.3 defensive rating in their last six games. That’s San Antonio Spurs territory.

In addition, Solomon Hill, who was a part of that Indiana Pacer team which nearly upset the Raptors in the first round of the 2016 playoffs, spent time covering DeRozan and has great knowledge of the game plan required to stop the explosive scorer. I fully expect him to hound DeRozan all night long.

The Pelicans may be a mundane 15-17 at home this season, but they are 8-5 against the Eastern Conference inside the Smoothie King Center, including wins over the Cavaliers, Celtics and Pacers.

I’m not bold enough to predict the outright victory, but I’m fairly confident in writing that New Orleans should have a very good chance to secure the win. Plus, coming off a really dismal performance against the Utah Jazz on Monday, the Pelicans should have plenty of motivation to make amends. #BounceBack

Geaux Pelicans!!!

What: Pelicans vs Raptors

Where: Smoothie King Center — New Orleans, LA

When: March 8, 2017 at 7:00 PM Central

How: Fox Sports New Orleans, 99.5 FM WRNO