Fivethirtyeight, a political, economic and sports website owned by ESPN, unveiled a new NBA projections system last season. The backbone of the model is an "algorithm that uses the career arcs of similar historical players to predict today's stars, journeymen and scrubs."
The model came within 1 win of their WAR predictions -- Wins Above Replacement -- for 55% of the players in the league. However, it whiffed badly on Anthony Davis, missing his projection by such a wide margin that was only exceeded by the career years of Stephen Curry and Kyle Lowry.
Before looking the other way, keep in mind that CARMELO just wrapped up its inaugural season -- mistakes and errors were expected. Also, despite the handicap, this model did a better job with predictions than say Las Vegas oddsmakers.
In addition, significant changes were made to upgrade to the model, including the addition of a market value category, exclusively using BPM (Box Plus/Minus) statistics and refining their two-step process.
The new and hopefully improved version claims Anthony Davis will have the biggest bounce back campaign.
If you look closely, there is a lot of overlap on the two charts. CARMELO doesn't believe Curry or Lowry will be able to repeat their incredible performances from a year ago. Conversely, it expects many among the younger generation who experienced disappointing seasons to rebound in 2016-17. Besides Davis, Blake Griffin, Kyle Lowry and Elfrid Payton are expected to see the biggest increases in WAR.