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2016 NBA Draft: Pelicans should learn from history with their two second round picks

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Youth and upside? Not a regular ticket for success in the second round.

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The New Orleans Pelicans received some answers yesterday despite not being directly involved in the tiebreaker drawing. They will most likely own the 39th and 40th picks in the second round thanks to a swap with the Sacramento Kings (the Pelicans own pick goes to Milwaukee) and the Ish Smith trade (via Denver). Who should the Pelicans target in the second round?

Since 2006 ten players selected 30th or lower rank in the top ten in win shares for their draft class. All ten are players you will recognize and there are a number of similarities in the group. Of these ten players eight played at least three seasons of collegiate basketball.

Height Wingspan Standing Reach Draft - Pick College Experience Rookie Age
Isaiah Thomas 5'10.25" 6'1.75" 7'7.5" 2011 - 60 Junior 22
Average NBA PG 6'2.1" 6'5.1" 8'0.8"
Jae Crowder 6'6.5" 6'9.25" 8'3.5" 2012 - 34 Sophomore 22
Jimmy Butler 6'7.75" 6'7.5" 8'5.5" 2011 - 30 Junior 22
Average NBA SG 6'5.6" 6'8.6" 8'5.5"
Carl Landry 6'8.5" 6'11" 8'6.5" 2007 - 31 Junior 24
Danny Green 6'6.5" 6'10" 8'7" 2009 - 46 Senior 22
Khris Middleton 6'8.25" 6'10.75" 8'7" 2012 - 39 Junior 21
Average NBA SF 6'7.7" 6'10.9" 8'8.2"
Chandler Parsons 6'9.75" 6'9.5" 8'8.5" 2011 - 38 Senior 23
Draymond Green 6'7.5" 7'1.25" 8'9" 2012 - 35 Senior 22
Paul Millsap 6'7.25" 7'1.5" 8'9.5" 2006 - 47 Junior 21
Average NBA PF 6'9.4" 7'1.2" 8'11"
Average NBA C 6'11.2" 7'3.0" 9'1.6"
DeAndre Jordan 6'11" 7'6" 9'5.5" 2008 - 35 Freshman 20

Average NBA size from this superb Nylon Calculus post

Typically a successful second round pick is a big, long upperclassmen with questions of athleticism going into the NBA. As Michael McNamara notes in his own post on Bourbon Street Shots a number of these players (his list is a little different than mine and extends only back to 2011) were also team captains.

Another common factor is that seven of the guys on this list were team captains. High character, hard working guys in college turn into hard working, high character guys in the pros. That’s not much of a surprise. A guy taken in round two likely has a huge deficiency in their game, and the only way to overcome that is to put in a ton of work.

What players slotted in the second round right now (according to the most recent DraftExpress mock draft) have good measurables, three or more years in college, and are noted for intangibles?

#32 - Brice Johnson, Senior PF UNC: He's on the small side (6'9.5", 6'10" wingspan, 185 lbs) for a big man according to the most recent measurements (2011) in the database. Johnson was a monster for the Tar Heels this season posting an incredible 33.0 PER while averaging 17.0 points and 10.4 rebounds a game. Johnson finished at a ridiculous 87.5% at the rim while also shooting 46.5% on 2-point jumpers and converting at an impressive 78.3% at the foul line. Johnson may go in the late first round or early second so the Pelicans may need to package picks to move up and grab him.

#38 - Malcolm Brogdon, Senior SG Virginia: Brogdon has excellent measurements (6'5.5", 6'10" wingspan, 219 lbs) for a shooting guard and questions thanks to his advanced age (already 23). Brogdon led Virginia scoring 18.2 points per game while shooting 39.1% behind the arc and 89.7% at the free throw line. He's a superb shooter with excellent footwork and a high IQ player. New Orleans could do far worse in the draft.

#45 Gary Payton II, Senior PG/SG Oregon State: Payton absolutely stuffed the stat sheet for the Beavers this year averaging 16.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. He is astonishingly athletic and regularly completed highlight dunks through traffic to the dismay of opponents. Like Brogdon there are concerns about Payton's upside as he is already 23 years old. Unlike the other three candidates listed there are also concerns on the shooting front for Payton.

#46 Jake Layman, Senior SF MarylandHis physical profile means inevitable comparisons to Chandler Parsons. Layman was an incredibly efficient player his senior year thanks in part to his position as the third or fourth option behind Melo Trimble, Diamond Stone, and Robert Carter. On the season Layman shot 79.7% at the rim and 39.6% from three on his way to an impressive 64.0% TS%. Layman has consistently improved from all areas of the court with his 3-point percentage and free throw percentage increasing every single season.

If I worked in the Pelicans front office these four players would be high on my list for the second round. Unfortunately for Pelican fans cold hard cash is probably high on the list in the Pelicans front office. Who wants a scouting report on cash considerations?