The Shopping List: Wings

We've looked at what we need and what we've go to spend. It's the Day 6 of The Greatest Free Agency Season Ever, so let's get to the first list- guys that can get it done on the wings.

As with last year, I've tried to include every wing player that's currently on the market. Thanks a lot to the lists published by HoopsWorld and ESPN player pages. Quick explanation of the table: RFA refers to restricted free agents, UFA to unrestricted free agents, Option to player options, tOption to team options, and ETO to early termination options. In the 'Target' column, I've included some information about price ($), age (old), or mediocrity (sucks). dMult is Basketball Prospectus' proprietary defensive stat (lower is better), and while I wouldn't look to it as a be-all, end-all, we can at least use it to jump start defensive discussion about these guys. Columns are sortable by clicking on headers. 

The full 50+ player table after the jump.

Player

Type

Last Salary

Projection ($)

TS%

dMULT

PER

Target?

Dwyane Wade

Option

17.1M

20+

56.2

0.738

28.0

No ($)

Joe Johnson

UFA

15.0M

20+

53.8

0.907

19.3

No ($)

Ray Allen

UFA

3.0M

15-20

60.1

0.912

15.2

No ($)

Kyle Korver

UFA

5.2M

5-10

62.0

0.930

13.9

Yes ($)

John Salmons

ETO

6.4M

5-10

55.3

0.878

14.7

No ($)

Roger Mason

UFA

3.8M

2-5

49.0

1.022

9.7

Yes

J.J. Redick

RFA

2.8M

5-7

60.6

0.944

15.0

Yes ($)

Raja Bell

UFA

5.3M

3-7

54.8*

0.902*

10.7*

Yes ($)

Michael Redd

ETO

17.0M

15-20

44.4

0.809*

12.1

No ($)

Anthony Morrow

RFA

0.7M

3-7

59.7

1.045

14.0

Yes (GSW)

Randy Foye

RFA

3.6M

2-4

51.6

1.000

13.2

No (PG)

Ronnie Brewer

RFA

2.3M

5-7

52.4

1.000

12.5

Yes ($)

Shannon Brown

Option

2.0M

3-7

51.7

1.078

12.4

Yes (LAL)

Mo Evans

Option

2.5M

2-4

53.9

1.133

12.2

Yes

Luther Head

UFA

0.9M

1

53.0

0.930

11.5

Yes

Damien Wilkins

UFA

3.3M

1-3

51.5

1.083

11.5

Yes

Willie Green

ETO

3.7M

1-3

53.8

1.045

12.8

Yes

Sasha Pavlovic

UFA

1.3M

1

42.2

1.025

5.4

No (Sucks)

Allen Iverson

UFA

0.2M

1

51.5

0.978*

13.4

No (???)

Larry Hughes

UFA

13.7M

2-4

46.7

0.965

11.1

Yes (old)

Keith Bogans

UFA

1.0M

1-2

54.2

0.988

7.7

Yes

Devin Brown

UFA

1.1M

1

50.0

1.073

10.0

Yes (ugh)

Quentin Richardson

UFA

9.4M

1-3

57.2

1.000

12.9

Yes (old)

Eddie House

UFA

2.9M

2-5

49.5

1.045

10.5

Yes (sucks)

Jason Kapono

Option

6.2M

3-7

52.7

1.061

8.4

Yes

Tony Allen

UFA

2.5M

3-5

54.0

0.947

14.2

Yes

Jerry Stackhouse

UFA

0.7M

1-2

51.7

0.940

11.1

Yes

DeShawn Stevenson

Option

3.9M

2-3

34.0

1.014

3.3

Yes (Sucks)

Ronald Murray

UFA

2.0

1-2

48.5

1.114

11.7

Yes

Michael Finley

UFA

2.5M

1-3

35.9

0.991

5.2

No (old)

Marquis Daniels

tOption

2.0M

1-2

52.6

0.915

9.6

Yes

Trenton Hassell

UFA

4.4M

1-3

46.5

1.088

6.5

Yes

Jarvis Hayes

UFA

2.1M

1-2

52.1

1.149

9.7

Yes

Ricky Davis

UFA

2.5M

1-3

50.4

0.998

8.5

Yes

Tracy McGrady

UFA

23.2M

3-10

46.6

0.994

12.2

Yes (???)

Richard Jefferson

ETO

14.2M

4-8

55.1

0.952

13.1

No ($)

Travis Outlaw

UFA

4.0

4-7

50.3

0.973

13.3

Yes

Rasual Butler

UFA

3.9M

2-5

52.4

0.915

10.7

Yes

Chris Douglas Roberts

tOption

0.7M

1-2

51.2

1.062

11.5

Yes

Matt Barnes

Option

1.6M

2-4

57.6

0.940

13.6

Yes

Dorrell Wright

UFA

2.8M

2-4

56.7

0.958

14.5

Yes

Antoine Wright

UFA

2.1M

1-2

50.2

1.136

8.6

No (Sucks)

Stephen Graham

UFA

0.9M

1-2

55.1

1.114

11.2

Yes

Ime Udoka

UFA

0.8M

1

43.2

0.988

9.6

No (Old)

Sonny Weems

tOption

0.7M

1

53.3

1.115

12.9

Yes

Rodney Carney

UFA

0.9M

1-2

51.5

0.953

12.7

Yes

Desmond Mason

UFA

0.1M

1

45.6*

0.871*

7.1*

No (Sucks)

Dominic McGuire

RFA

0.8M

1

34.5

1.099

3.8

No (Sucks)

James Jones

tOption

4.3M

1-2

55.6

0.972

8.8

Yes

J.R. Giddens

UFA

1.0M

1

49.2

0.978

9.2

Yes

Yakhouba Diawara

UFA

0.9

1

47.3*

0.924*

-3.7

No (NO)

"Uh Oh, Everybody's Gone And/Or (Probably And) We're Broke." 

There are a few players that I gave a "yes" to above that I'd be absolutely horrified to actually see on the Hornets. These players, naturally, are either too old, too terrible, or Devin Brown. Of course, more detail is probably warranted.

  1. Stephen Graham: If Graham moves out of Charlotte this summer, he’ll be joining his 7th team in 7 years. He hasn’t  really shown an ability to shoot, pass, or even stay healthy, nor has he been the greatest defender.  In short, the definition of a last resort.
  2. Luther Head: It’s kind of weird to think that Head has been in the league 6 years now. It’s also kind of depressing (for him) to think he hasn’t improved one iota in that time. He could conceivably plug a hole on a contending team, but our holes dwarf him and his skill set.
  3. James Jones: Shooter that’s more of a forward than a wing. Next.
  4. J.R. Giddens: He played for the Celtics and his middle name is Ray. Unfortunately, the traits he shares with Jesus Shuttlesworth end there. He's played a grand total of 247 NBA minutes; while he's athletic and may be able to create his own shot, this would be pure desperation.
  5. Sonny Weems: Randomly had a solid year north of the border in 2009-2010 (by "solid," I of course mean "mediocre," a recurring theme for this post). He can’t shoot, he won’t score a ton, and he turns the ball over like crazy… but he’s good at everything else. What else is there to be good at, you ask? Making twos really seems to be his calling card. Nothing spectacular, but if you’re named Sonny and not getting shot at in front of a toll stop, you’re clearly doing something right.
  6. Damien Wilkins: The nephew of Nique, but he doesn’t have many Highlights nor has he ever been on Film, although we probably do have to begrudgingly admit that he’s Human. He’s Rasual Butler without range; in other words, even odds he’s in a New Orleans jersey come November.
  7. Larry Hughes: Hey Larry Hughes, please stop taking so many bad shots, opined an ingenious blogger once upon a time. But Larry won’t be swayed so easily. That brick house ain’t building itself.
  8. Devin Brown: Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
  9. Quentin Richardson: Yet another shooter that’s grown too old/slow to work adequately on the wings. And this time, Isiah isn’t around to save him.
  10. Eddie House: Drat! I knew I should’ve saved the "dwarf him and his skill set" line.  Yet another guy that does little more than shoot the ball (although, even at 31, he could be a Pargo-style full court press defender). The more I look at it, the more I realize this is the perfect free agency for the Bosh-LBJ-Wade super team to be created- tons and tons of cheap, one-skill players that don’t need the ball in their hands abound.
  11. Roger Mason: Remember back when everybody was falling out of their chairs to praise the Spurs for signing Mason? He does things the stats don’t capture, they said. He’s clutch! Umm, yeah, no. He’s short, he’s primarily a catch and shoot guy, and doesn’t offer much versatility. Basically, he’s an old, not good Marcus Thornton. Pass.
  12. Jason Kapono: It’s difficult to imagine that a player with a shot this smooth could suck this bad. But Kapono makes the magic (aka an 8.4 and 8.9 PER the last two years) happen by being unbelievably bad at two pointers. He’s not particularly good at defense either. I wouldn’t say avoid at all costs, but avoid at 99% of costs certainly.
  13. Jerry Stackhouse: Stackhouse has never had a usage rate lower than 21.9% in his career, and given his sad efficiencies, that’s a recipe for disaster on a team with Chris Paul, David West, and Marcus Thornton. Go retire, Jerry.
  14. DeShawn Stevenson: Takes too many threes despite sucking at them- check. Likes Soulja Boy- check. Posted a 3.3 PER- check. Has a tattoo of Abraham Lincoln tattooed on his neck- check. I feel kind of bad making fun of him, given the sad story of his childhood/parents, but a lot of it seems like his own immaturity. Another wing I’d avoid despite obvious athletic ability.
  15. Trenton Hassell: PER’s the last eight years: 6.5, 7.2, 4.2, 9.7, 9.5, 9.3, 8.2, 6.0. Ouch.
  16. Ricky Davis: The basketball card of Davis as a Hornet rookie was one of the first I ever collected. The line on the back of it said Davis showed up for his first Hornets practice three hours early. Ten years later, the pendulum has clearly swung the other way. Davis is undisciplined, has lost a step, and can’t shoot. But every time I see Davis now, I think nostalgically of those long forgotten teams. You know who we should sign this summer? 1997-1998 Glen Rice. Make it happen, Bower. 

"Hey... I've Heard of This Guy!"

  1. Kyle Korver: He doesn’t play a lick of defense, and really doesn’t have many redeeming skills beyond his shot. Oh, and his movies kind of suck. But let’s be fair, a career 41% mark from three point range will take you a long way, and a Punk’d episode of David West would be one of the highlights of my decade. Korver last played for a $5 million contract, and some team is going to overpay him.
  2. Shannon Brown: Brown will be a difficult player to evaluate this summer. On the one hand, he didn’t shoot particularly well, has limited range, and didn’t pass or rebound much. On the other hand, he’s super athletic and could likely make a terrific first-option perimeter defender. For 4 million a year, that has to be worth it, right? For the full midlevel, not so much.
  3. Raja Bell: He’s 34 and hasn’t had a fully healthy season in two years now, but his reputation as a defender remains firmly intact. He’s arguably a better spot up shooter than Kyle Korver, too. But neither of those things really trump being old and injured. Plus, he’s probably going to sign with the Bosh-Wade-LeBron super team anyway.
  4. Tracy McGrady: Ah, Mr. "New Orleans is dangerous." I know 99% of Hornets fans will hate this, on gut instinct. And McGrady himself is eons away from his historically amazing 2002-2003 season (116 points/possession on a 35.2% usage rate. Seriously). But T-Mac off the bench for limited dollars? It would put fans into seats, it would be awesome if it worked, it would be hilarious if it failed miserably. (No? McGrady and DX getting in a fight and Chris Paul demanding a trade out of NOLA wouldn't be good for a couple chuckles? Aw, y'all are no fun).
  5. Matt Barnes: Let’s see. Had a "career" year with a 13.6 PER. Will likely command 4ish million dollars. Really more of a forward than a wing. Middle name is Kelly. The rebounding and shooting is nice, but Barnes is the biggest misfit of the misfit group.

"People That Could Actually Be Productive"

  1. Rodney Carney: He’s played primarily forward throughout his career, which makes me leery.  Decent shooting figures, pretty solid defensive ability, a great defensive rebounding year last season, and a low price tag make him intriguing… but again, I can’t envision him being any more a "wing" than Julian Wright.
  2. Mo Evans: Speaking of Julian, here’s a guy that’s about as efficient as him. Evans rarely ventures into the paint (as evidenced by a rebounding percentage of 7.7% and a FTA/36 of 1.7. Now that I’ve bashed him, let me also say that I can’t shake a sneaking suspicion Evans will be a Hornet next year. I’ll leave you with the positives: decent shooter, good range, and a career 114 points/possession mark over 16% usage.  So, actually not that terrible.
  3. Ronald Murray: New Orleans, meet Jannero Pargo 2.0 (not sure what that implies for Jeremy Pargo). Regardless of team or teammates, Murray makes sure he jacks up an inordinate number of shots, scoring extremely inefficiently. Advanced metrics aren’t particularly enamored of his defense, either (something Pargo at least had on his side). It sucks because Murray looks to be affordable and well-known enough to appease the casual fan.
  4. Willie Green: One of the league’s most inefficient players when he first entered the NBA, but since re-signing with Philadelphia in 2007, he’s slashed his turnovers, improved his shot, and become a decent all around offensive player. dMult doesn’t like him too much as a defender, but considering he likely won’t get more than ~4 million dollars, there are worse signings out there.
  5. Dorell Wright: Had an outstanding year shooting the ball, and while a contract shouldn’t be offered on that alone, he’s young and still has some potential. The fact that his name has only one R and two L’s really pisses me off though.

  6. Rasual Butler: Not exactly an enigma here. He’ll bring his shot, reasonable but not spectacular defense, and… nothing else. Figures to be cheap-ish, knows Chris Paul’s game well, but he’s on the wrong side of 30. It’s debatable how well this would go over with fans, too.
  7. Chris Douglas-Roberts: Remember waaaaay back in the day, when a number of us wanted New Orleans to draft him? In fact, look what I wrote on July 9th, 2008!: "Had we not sold our 27th pick, you know what we could've done? Re-sign Pargo, draft CDR, and acquire Turiaf (most of our MLE, and easily outclass GSW's offer of 4 years, 17 mil). Pargo/CDR/Turiaf sure beats Pargo/Posey..." Of course, none of that ever happened, and then December 2008-Now 2010 happened. CDR isn’t actually that good- very poor range, not a good shooter, etc. But he’s another one of those guys that has the physical tools to become our perimeter stopper… and he’s not getting more than $2 million. I think.
  8. Marquis Daniels: I’ll refer you to the "Tattoos" and "Rap Career" sections of Daniel’s Wikipedia page, but I also want to point out his positives: he can be an efficient scorer when healthy, has the physical tools to be a great perimeter defender, and can function as the team’s 3rd string point guard. At the right price (<3 million), I think Daniels would be a great signing. All right, now off you go.

"The Heavens Have Smiled Upon Us"

  • J.J. Redick: He played a big role in Orlando’s season, shooting well and playing solid defense. But it’s just as hard to envision myself cheering for a Duke grad as it is to imagine him not getting the full midlevel somewhere.
  • Anthony Morrow: Don Nelson seems to have no idea what he has on his hands in a guy like Brandan Wright, but he does love him some guards. Question is, who actually wants to play for GSW? Morrow is young, athletic, can shoot, and would benefit tremendously under Monty Williams. Win-win-win-win, but the price tag is likely in the 5 million range.
  • Ronnie Brewer: I called him the best "supporting" wing in the league a couple years ago, and a few crappy months in Memphis doesn’t really change that. He’s Rasual Butler with driving ability, more strength, and defensive skills. Again, a full-midlevel kind of guy.
  • Tony Allen: Allen had himself a career year as Boston rode into the Finals, so numerous teams likely have their eyes on him. With the Medical Professional returning to coach Boston, he probably re-ups with the Big Threeriatrics (you see, the key to good comedy is it should never be forced).
  • Travis Outlaw: A solid shooter and defender, decent rebounder, good ball handler, can create his own shot, sustained a points/possession of 102 on a 26% usage rate in 2007-2008. Too bad he has no real reason to come to New Orleans. Oh wait!
  • 51 options -> 34 reasonable options -> 13 reasonable and good options -> 5 super awesome pretty good options. Happy shopping.

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